Thursday, July 24, 2014

Round 4 Best Bets for 2014-15

This is an updated version of 2013-14 Round 4 Best Bets posted last year. The deadline to change your waitpool school is 7/25/2014.

Here are the latest kindergarten waitpools, sorted by the ratio of waitpool applicants to kindergarten seats. The number of kindergarten seats per school/program are my best guess, based on SFUSD's reported number of seats per school for Round 1 and enrollment by grade from DataQuest. For the language programs, I assumed a ratio of 9 English to 13 target language spots.

Some interesting changes compared to last year. It looks like SFUSD increased the reported capacity of schools with 3 or more classes per grade for Round 1. For example, Alamo's capacity is 91, Feinstein's is 92, and Jefferson's is 90, compared to 86, 87 and 85 respectively for 2013-14. Rooftop, McKinley and West Portal all have 69 students. If these schools were filled to the reported capacity, class size would be 23 students, not 22.

What's going on? I speculate that SFUSD is overenrolling students in earlier rounds, counting on a few students not to show up on the first day of school. Will this mean less movement during the 10-day count?


2014-15 WAIT POOLS as of 7/18/2014

General Education

No waitpool/possible openings: Carmichael, Carver, Chavez, Cleveland, Drew, El Dorado, Garfield, Guadalupe, Harte, Lau, Malcolm X, McCoppin, Muir, Ortega, Parker, Parks, Redding, Revere, Sanchez, Serra, Sheridan, Spring Valley, Starr King, Tenderloin, Vis Valley.

School Prg Wait
Pool
  Kindergarten
  Capacity 
Waitpool
as a %
  of K Spots
ARGONNE GE 1 92 1%
FLYNN GE 1 44 2%
HILLCREST GE 1 44 2%
LONGFELLOW GE 2 88 2%
REDDING GE 1 44 2%
ALAMO GE 3 91 3%
LAKESHORE GE 3 88 3%
BRYANT GE 1 22 5%
WEBSTER GE 1 22 5%
LAFAYETTE GE 5 88 6%
STEVENSON GE 5 88 6%
ULLOA GE 4 66 6%
FEINSTEIN GE 7 92 8%
JEFFERSON GE 7 90 8%
MILK GE 4 44 9%
SUTRO GE 2 22 9%
KEY GE 9 88 10%
YICK WO GE 5 44 11%
WEST PORTAL GE 8 69 12%
SF COMMUNITY GE 4 33 12%
CHIN GE 3 22 14%
GLEN PARK GE 6 44 14%
NEW TRADITIONS GE 6 44 14%
MIRALOMA GE 9 60 15%
ROOFTOP GE 11 69 16%
LAWTON GE 11 67 16%
SUNSET GE 12 67 18%
ALVARADO GE 8 44 18%
MONROE GE 4 22 18%
MOSCONE GE 4 22 18%
PEABODY GE 8 44 18%
MCKINLEY GE 13 69 19%
LILIENTHAL GE 14 66 21%
SLOAT GE 14 66 21%
SUNNYSIDE GE 14 66 21%
MONTESSORI GE 5 22 23%
SHERMAN GE 17 67 25%
GRATTAN GE 18 67 27%
TAYLOR GE 15 44 34%
CLARENDON GE 27 44 61%


FLES (Foreign Language in Elementary School)

School Prg Wait
Pool
  Kindergarten
  Capacity 
Waitpool
as a %
  of K Spots
LONGFELLOW FB FB None 22 -
CARMICHAEL FB FB None 22? -
PARKS JBBP JB 2 44 5%
CLARENDON JBBP JB 11 44 25%
FB= Tagalog, JB=Japanese


Cantonese Immersion

English spots
School Prg Wait
Pool
  Kindergarten
  Capacity 
Waitpool
as a %
  of K Spots
GARFIELD CE None 9 of 22 -
YU CE - monolingual English* 13 44 of 66? 30%
WEST PORTAL CE 4 13 of 33 31%
CHINESE IMMERSION CE 10 27 of 66 37%
YU CT-not monolingual English 15 22 of 66? 68%
* For Alice Fong Yu, CE refers to students who only listed English as a home language on their application. Students who listed any language other than English on the application are considered "CT."


Cantonese spots
School Prg Wait
Pool
  Kindergarten
  Capacity 
Waitpool
as a %
  of K Spots
GARFIELD CN 13 of 22 -
CHINESE IMMERSION CN 1 39 of 66 3%
WEST PORTAL CN 7 20 of 33? 35%
CN=passed the Cantonese proficiency test.


Mandarin Immersion

English spots
School Prg Wait
Pool
  Kindergarten
  Capacity 
Waitpool
as a %
  of K Spots
STARR KING ME 4 18 of 44 22%
ORTEGA ME 9 9 of 22 100%

Mandarin spots
School Prg Wait
Pool
  Kindergarten
  Capacity 
Waitpool
as a %
  of K Spots
STARR KING MN None 26 of 44 -
ORTEGA MN 5 13 of 22 38%


Korean Immersion

School Prg Wait
Pool
  Kindergarten
  Capacity 
Waitpool
as a %
  of K Spots
LILIENTHAL English (KE) 4 9 of 22 44%
LILIENTHAL Korean (KN) None 13 of 22 -


Spanish Immersion

English spots
School Prg Wait
Pool
  Kindergarten
  Capacity 
Waitpool
as a %
  of K Spots
HARTE SE None9 of 22 -
MARSHALL SE 1 18 of 44 6%
REVERE SE 1 18 of 44 6%
FLYNN SE 3 18 of 44 17%
MONROE SE 4 18 of 44 22%
FAIRMOUNT SE 7 27 of 66 26%
BUENA VISTA/MANN SE 10 27 of 66 37%
ALVARADO SE 8 18 of 44 44%
WEBSTER SE 12 18 of 44  67%

Harte, Revere and Webster have no wait pool for Spanish proficient spots, so more English spots may open up. For those considering Harte, a glowing parent review is at: http://phile.com/user/SweetMedicine

Spanish proficient spots
School Prg Wait
Pool
  Kindergarten
  Capacity 
Waitpool
as a %
  of K Spots
WEBSTER SN - 26 of 44 -
REVERE SN - 26 of 44 -
HARTE SN - 13 of 22 -
FAIRMOUNT SN 3 39 of 66 8%
FLYNN SN 2 26 of 44 8%
MONROE SN 2 26 of 44 8%
BUENA VISTA SN 5 39 of 66 13%
ALVARADO SN 4 26 of 44 15%
MARSHALL SN 8 26 of 44 31%

Never Say Die Strategies

For Round 5, the percentage of students who register but don't show up on the first 3 days of school varies by race/ethnicity. Of the kindergarteners who registered for a spot and did not show up on the first day of school, 40% were white.  Kindergarteners of "Other" race/ethnicity were the most likely not to show up to their kindergarten assignment (35%), but there are not many of them. White kindergarteners are the next most likely (25%), followed by non-Chinese Asians (17%), then Latinos and African Americans  (13%). Chinese applicants are the least likely (11%).

This suggests that if you have the fortitude to hold out until the last day to get in off the wait pool, 14 days after school starts, your chances would be higher at, say, Lilienthal than at Alice Fong Yu. McKinley and Lakeshore were mentioned in the 2011 report as two schools that had a high number of students not showing up on the first day of school.
Source: SFUSD First Annual Report on Student Assignment for the 2011-12 School Year, 3/5/2012


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